Why is incumbency an electoral blessing for politicians in some democracies but an electoral curse in others? Though widespread, we know little about why incumbency bias emerges and varies so widely around the world. Incumbency Bias fills this important gap in comparative politics by providing the first book-length study of incumbency advantage and disadvantage. It offers a general theory that argues that incumbency bias emerges because democratic institutions often generate a mismatch between citizens' expectations of incumbent performance and incumbents' capacity to deliver on these expectations. Focusing on Latin America, Incumbency Bias employs an innovative research design that draws on 15 months of fieldwork and uses tools of causal inference to analyze a wealth of data from Argentina, Brazil, and Chile. A central contribution of this book is to offer a nuanced interpretation of incumbency bias: rather than clientelistic or corrupt elites compromising accountability, it shows that democracy can generate an uneven playing field if citizens demand good governance but have limited information.
"Why are incumbent mayors more likely to lose re-election in Brazil but win it in Argentina? Why is the electoral playing field skewed against the opposition in some countries and against the government in others? We often deceive ourselves by assuming that political performance operates in equilibrium—where good governance is rewarded, and bad governance is punished. But what happens when all local incumbents are either flooded with resources or deprived of them? In his groundbreaking study, Luis Schiumerini reveals that, in low-information environments, incumbents' performance rarely reaches equilibrium. Retrospective voting can be overly lenient toward those in power—or, at times, far too harsh."
Ernesto Calvo
Professor of Government and Politics, University of Maryland
“Incumbency was once believed to yield an overwhelming advantage in Latin America. But today, at least in parts of Latin America, incumbents are being thrown out like never before. In this pathbreaking study, Luis Schiumerini offers a compelling new framework to understand why incumbents succeed or fail. Drawing on impressive research, Incumbency Bias shows why incumbency continues to benefit politicians in some contexts but undermines them in others. This is, by far, the best book I have read on the comparative politics of incumbency. A must-read for anyone who studies—or cares about—electoral politics in Latin America.”
Steven Levitsky
David Rockefeller Professor of Latin American Studies and Professor of Government, Harvard University
“Political bias due to incumbency occurs all over the world, not just in the United States. But it is a complicated thing. Politicians or parties running to stay in office can either be helped or hurt by their status of incumbency. In this skillful analysis, Luis Schiumerini shows the ins and outs of the matter in Latin America.”
David R. Mayhew
Sterling Professor of Political Science Emeritus, Yale University
“Incumbency Bias offers a novel twist on a long-established assumption, that politicians benefit from being in office. Instead of an incumbency advantage, in some contexts politicians suffer from an incumbency disadvantage - not because they performed poorly, but because voters in some contexts “expect too much” of their elected officials, and thus punish them “excessively” at the ballot box.”
David Samuels
Distinguished McKnight University Professor, University of Minnesota
